Chinese Premier Li Qiang has announced the formal launch of a massive hydroelectric project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. To mark the occasion, a groundbreaking ceremony took place recently, in the southeastern Tibetan city of Nyingchi near the Indian border.
According to reports, the project is expected to be the world’s largest hydro-power facility upon completion, with a projected annual electricity output of 300 billion kilowatt-hours. That’s around three times the capacity of China’s existing Three Gorges Dam.
The Yarlung Tsangpo River originates on the Tibetan Plateau and becomes the Brahmaputra River as it flows into India’s northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam before continuing into Bangladesh.
Owing to the trans-boundary nature of the river, China’s move has raised concerns in both India and Bangladesh regarding the downstream effects of the project. Particularly in terms of water availability, agricultural impact, and environmental disruption.
Dam to have five5 cascade hydro-power stations
Beijing had originally proposed the project as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan in 2020, with a formal approval being granted in late 2024. According to reports, the dam will consist of five cascade hydro-power stations, requiring a total estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan (about $167bn).
The primary purpose of the project is to generate electricity for external markets, though it is also expected to meet some local energy needs in Tibet.
In a bid to quell regional anxiety, China has stated that the project has already been subject to comprehensive scientific assessment to ensure it would not negatively impact downstream ecosystems, geological stability, or the water rights of neighbouring countries.
The Chinese foreign ministry has also been quick to point out that the dam will contribute to disaster prevention, climate change adaptation, and regional energy cooperation. The ministry further stated that the dam project will not be used for political leverage.
Despite these promises, concerns persist in India and Bangladesh. Analysts and officials worry about the potential for China to manipulate river flow during times of political tension, possibly causing artificial floods or droughts downstream.
Environmental groups have also highlighted the risk of biodiversity loss, displacement of communities, and disruption to the delicate Himalayan ecosystem.
Concerns in India, Bangladesh about the project
India, in particular, has accelerated its own hydro-power development projects in Arunachal Pradesh to assert control over its water resources and offset perceived risks from the Chinese dam.
Longstanding border disputes also compound the issue. While India asserts that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of its sovereign territory, China continues to claim it as part of southern Tibet – objecting to infrastructure developments in the region.
To manage the massive undertaking logistically, China has established a new state-owned enterprise named the China Yajiang Group, which will serve as the official project owner. The new company will be responsible for construction, operation, and ensuring environmental protections.