Monday 11 May 2026

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its waste forecasts providing a future outlook of waste generation and recycling trends for municipal and packaging wastes. 

The forecasting models provide estimates ahead of the availability of finalised statistics. 

The forecasts indicate that waste generation is expected to continue to grow across municipal waste, from households and businesses and packaging waste streams.  

Lag behind the EU average

Recycling rates for municipal wastes are forecast to remain largely stagnant and lag behind the EU average. Packaging waste recycling rates are projected to increase modestly, however the increases are not expected to be sufficient to meet future targets.  

Looking ahead, the 2030 targets appear challenging based on current waste generation and recycling trends. Reducing waste generation levels is critical, but increased recycling rates will also be needed.  

To meet the 2030 municipal waste recycling target of 60% will require an additional 500,000 tonnes of recycling, highlighting the scale of the challenge ahead.     

David Flynn, director of the EPA’s Office of Environmental Sustainability, said:  “While recycling rates for packaging are improving, these gains are eroded by continued growth in waste generation. The priority now is to implement policy measures in the government’s Whole of Government Circular Economy Strategy, delivering the practical circular economy solutions to incentivise waste prevention and better material recovery along the full supply chain.’’  

The EPA will continue to update and refine these forecasts as verified waste data becomes available.  

Further information on the packaging waste forecasts is available on the EPA website.